We published this in late August, a little more than one week ago. It now seems like a century ago. Indeed, a lot of waters have passed under the Big Brother bridge. Erica has been disqualified and it has changed a lot of the equation.
If you are a betting person, draw your sleeves to your elbow and join us, we are about to dive into the not so clear waters of analyzing what would happen on the last day of the Big Brother house and who would take the hotly hotly-contested prize home. If you are not a betting person, you should be, Big Brother Naija Lockdown Season is sponsored by a betting company. This isn’t coincidental. And no, our analyses of the winning chances of the housemates are not guesswork. It is based on the name recognition of the housemates offlines, their trends on Social Media, the volume of searches on Google, their celebrity support, and the rather established pattern based on past winners to gauge the Big Brother favourites for the 85 million.
None of these is cast on stone. For instance, people could be searching for you on Google and they are not necessarily your fans. Nengi’s age is one of the most searched keywords of the reality star. The people searching for her age are mostly not her fans. They want gist. The same goes for Social Media trends which can easily be influenced by influencers and the herd mentality of this generation. Even if a housemate’s Social Media army is genuine, how many of these internet footsoldiers actually vote and how many of them have strong voting value? – we are not talking 30 naira voters here.
We also must recognize the power of the silent majority. There are people who will never sing about their favourite housemate’s praises on the internet but who are seriously spending fortunes voting. Celebrity support can also be overrated. In 2018, there were more celebrities supporting CeeC than Miracle. Tobi also had more celebrity support than Miracle. In fact, I cannot recall any celebrity who rooted for Miracle but Miracle won.
Again, there is the ultimate game-changer of disqualification. Mercy and Tacha were running head-to-head during the Pepper Dem Season but Tacha didn’t even make the final day. She was disqualified. One moment of madness and your dreams and our verbose analysis would be flushed down the drain. It is not fair. It is what it is.
So, there would definitely be the human factor from me as the writer of this review. I would have to use my intuition and hunch more than is allowed for in, say, sports betting analysis. But I filed this analysis under TV Show (since we do not have a review/analysis category). I also found time to warn/plead with the lead editor against filing this under “opinion”. It is not an opinion in the sense that an opinion is largely subjective. This one is an expert analysis, sort of.
I must also point out that I am not even a Nigerian. My favourite (if you can call her that) has been evicted if you must know. So this is a cold analysis. Enough talking already. One last note, if you are a betting novice, the smaller the odd, the higher the winning chances.
What we wrote about Erica before her disqualification
There is no one who has ever heard of Big Brother who doesn’t think that Erica has a good chance of winning it. On Sunday the 23rd of August, after Erica was given two strikes, people began to compare her with Tacha and not just in the disqualification aspect but in the size of her brand. She is the biggest brand in the show so far.
It is easy to tell why. She has been the ambassador or face of many brands, people remember these sort of things. She is also an actress, her movies and clips of it are all over the internet. And she makes news in the house. From party nights to arena games, to Head of House challenges, to receiving strikes, Erica is in the middle.
Her rejection of Laycon may have earned her the wrath of “Icons” and people who believe that a woman doesn’t have the right to reject a “good” man, but it has earned her the support of women (and men) who are more of the independent and equality leanings. What can work against Erica? One thing, she may get butted out. If she doesn’t, she would continue to grow and the more Big Brother and trolls tackle her, the more she is likely to get that one thing that Laycon has over her – the viewers’ sympathy.
Erica’s winning odds: 1/3
The Four Big Brother favourites
4. Kiddwaya
There is a lot of talk about Kiddwaya’s father’s money. But except the man is ready to spend thirty million naira to get his son win 30 million naira (which is the prize money, the rest being in non-monetary prices). And even 30 million naira may not be enough to win it. I recall Jackye’s boyfriend coming out to say that he spent 1.5 million naira to keep his girlfriend in the Pepper Dem house and she still got evicted. If 1.5 million naira wasn’t enough to keep someone in the house in the early days, 30 million won’t be enough to win it on the last day. You can’t beat the power of organic mad crowds.
But his father’s money can enhance his chances.
And it is not as if Kiddwaya doesn’t have fans on his own merit, he does and they may as well swell until they build an army capable of winning the show. What we see of Kidd, he doesn’t have such base yet. Most of his trends and searches online are related to that of his house girlfriend, Erica. He cannot outshine his mistress.
But a lot can change at any time in Big Brother house. If Erica is disqualified (say God forbid, Elites) then Kiddwaya may inherit her fan base. But as long as Erica remains in the house, Kiddwaya may never be a red-hot favourite.
Well, Erica has been disqualified but it doesn’t look like Kiddwaya would inherit her votes because on Erica’s last week in the house, she wasn’t up for eviction yet Kiddwaya didn’t make up to 20% of the votes.
Kidd’s winning odds: 1/39
3. Nengi
Nengi is one of the major lockdown housemates dominating search engine queries. But it is not always for the right thing. People are asking how old she is and if she actually did a butt job. These guys do not look like the voting types, nay, her voters. All publicity is good publicity when it comes to reality shows. Tacha is a case study; CeeC is another. Just create the news, dominate the blogs.
But the problem for Nengi is that she is not making so much of this news inside the house. She had made them before hitting the house and they seem to have cast her in a bad light. Dominating the news for bad reasons can be detrimental to success. Tall Thin Tony lost credence when it emerged that he was a married man outside the house but claiming single in the See Gobbe house. Gifty Powers was perceived as fake; she went home. Enkay trended over ludo and went home last year on that account, claiming less than 1% of the votes. None of these made the last five.
Nengi’s case may as well be different.
Nengi’s media handlers should be worried that Nengi hasn’t created a feuding fan base. Feuds help. They fire up the base and win new fans and keep the fire burning to the last voting Thursday. 2018, it was Miracle vs CeeC; 2019, it was Mercy vs Tacha. This year, it should have been Nengi vs Laycon or Nengi vs Erica. But it is Erica vs Laycon. Did Nengi’s age scandal as soon as she entered the house hurt her? Perhaps. But she is a close third and has continued to knock at the door of the front horses.
What can change for Nengi. Tacha can be the joker in her pack. Nengi is from Bayelsa; Tacha is from Rivers. These are cousin-states, heck, they used to be one state. Again, both Tacha and Nengi are Port Harcourt universities’ graduates (Port Harcourt girls). If I were Nengi I could have claimed to be Port Harcourt second daughter or something. As Tacha, I would have thrown my weight behind Nengi for a cut of the prize. Tacha may still do this and if she does, it may change everything. Don’t hold your breath.
Nengi’s winning odds: 1/12.5
2. Ozo
Ozo reminds me so much about Mike from Pepper Dem gang. He is good-looking, he is smart and he has a leader in him. In fact, Ozo seems like an improvement of Mike. While Mike came in and played it cool as a faithful husband, refusing to be emotionally involved with anyone. Ozo is not just involved with any one, he is involved with two – Dorathy the housemate with the biggest boobs and Nengi the housemate with the biggest bum (not objectifying anyone here just trying to prove how much blessed he is or seem to be).
Viewers want a drama and the romantic triangle Ozo has built in the house makes him one of the top content creators. He would be rewarded. And he has been reaping the rewards of his relevance and “content” by appearing in the top half after every voting round. Twice, too, he has won Head of House (so far) which means he is saving his fans’ resources which they may employ when it really counts.
Another advantage which is also a problem for Ozo is that he is most people’s second choice. Take a look at this scenario:
Joyce’s favourite: Laycon; second-choice: Ozo
Uche’s favourite: Nengi; second-choice: Ozo
Bayo’s favourite: Erica; second-choice: Ozo.
If anything happens to any of these top guys, Ozo stands to gain. Above, I mentioned that Kiddwaya may inherit Erica’s fans but this isn’t cast on stone. But while the game continues the way it is, if there is no major shake-up in the house, Ozo won’t break into the top two.
Well, we wrote the last sentence a century ago when compared to what has now happened in the Big Brother house. Erica is no more and Ozo seemed poised to inherit her votes (some of it actually, the rest are lost to disgust), maybe tapping into the sentiments of people who saw Ngozi in Erica. I still doubt this would be enough to get Ozo across the line.
Laycon is too strong it is almost a one-man race.
Ozo’s winning odds: 1/6
The clear favourite Laycon
Here is what we wrote about
“Laycon songs” is the most searched term on Google relating to the on-going Big Brother season. And it is not for the want of a better keyword. People are interested in Laycon. People really like him. He casts the figure of a boy of humble beginning that should be helped. Like another Efe, perhaps more gifted. Five weeks in the house and his songs have been streamed over two million times across all channels.
And people also think he is smart. There are stories making rounds on the blogs that he is a first-class graduate. There are people who have even gone as far as to claim he was the best graduating student in Unilag in 2016. Sentiments have entered this story so telling his fans that Laycon is a 2.1 graduate and far from being the best graduating student of his department won’t get you a lot of attention. I won’t try.
And the reason why I won’t is that it won’t change anything. Laycon’s fans like him, pity him, and admire his hustles. It will take a lot to drag support out of him. But, somehow, I think Erica has a slight edge so far. But the game is on and players grow, fail, and get disqualified. Erica is already walking on thin grounds.
And Laycon doesn’t need Erica butted out to win. He may grow and grow and grow enough to win it with Erica in the house. But he may need more than the support we are seeing so far. He may get it.
Laycon’s winning odds: 1/5
Laycon’s adjusted winning odds: 1/2
Outside bet
These are housemates who, while not favourites have what it takes to pull a surprise on the last night.
Dorathy
Many of you would be surprised that Dorathy didn’t make the top five. But I don’t see her going above any of the housemates above. Unlike any of the housemates above, Dorathy fan base doesn’t seem to be trending up. It was like a flash in the pan, it burns but it doesn’t burn down the house. Dorathy is more than just her endowment but her body seems to be her biggest selling point. And it may not be enough on the last day.
But never say it won’t happen.
Even Lucy made our outside bet. See what we wrong wrote about her
Many expected Lucy to be the first housemate to go home. Then she won the Head of House on the first eviction week and was saved from eviction. She wasn’t eligible to participate in the next Head of House challenge and all were, almost, sure she would be in the bottom four. She wasn’t. After three weeks of not hitting the last four, in fact, beating Prince and Brighto in one of them, I am beginning to take her more seriously.
Big Brother doesn’t show us the results of the top-placed housemates and for all, it is worth and unseen, Lucy may be more popular than one of the so-called top five. The first time Lucy was saved from the bottom four by viewers, people suspected it was the just evicted Ka3na who campaigned for her and maybe even invested in her votes. After Lucy escaped the last four again, they begin to say it was the army of thirtyish women who were voting for their age-shamed sister. Let’s just admit it, we have no clue as to why Lucy is doing well in the Big Brother house.
We may as well prepare for a shocker on the 71st night.
Image source: Africa Magic
